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Registros recuperados: 5
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Adapting Science to Adaptive Managers: Spidergrams, Belief Models, and Multi-agent Systems Modeling Ecology and Society
Lynam, Timothy; Tropical Resource Ecology Program, University of Zimbabwe; tlynam@science.uz.ac.zw; Bousquet, Francois; CIRAD Tera; bousquet@cirad.fr; Le Page, Christophe; CIRAD Tera; lepage@cirad.fr; d'Aquino, P.; CIRAD Tera; daquino@telecomplus.sn; Barreteau, Olivier; Cemagref Division Irrigation; barreteau@montpellier.cemagref.fr; Chinembiri, Frank C; Agritex;; Mombeshora, Bright; ;.
Two case studies are presented in which models were used as focal tools in problems associated with common-pool resource management in developing countries. In the first case study, based in Zimbabwe, Bayesian or Belief Networks were used in a project designed to enhance the adaptive management capacity of a community in a semiarid rangeland system. In the second case study, based in Senegal, multi-agent systems models were used in the context of role plays to communicate research findings to a community, as well as to explore policies for improved management of rangelands and arable lands over which herders and farmers were in conflict. The paper provides examples of the use of computer-based modeling with stakeholders who had limited experience with...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Bayesian belief networks; Developing country; Dynamic modeling; Multi-agent systems; Participatory modeling; Semiarid rangeland; Senegal; Spidergrams; Zimbabwe.
Ano: 2002
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Application of the SES Framework for Model-based Analysis of the Dynamics of Social-Ecological Systems Ecology and Society
Hinkel, Jochen; Global Climate Forum (GCF), Berlin, Germany; hinkel@globalclimateforum.org; Bots, Pieter W. G. ; Technical University Delft, The Netherlands; p.w.g.bots@tudelft.nl.
Social-ecological systems (SES) are dynamic systems that continuously change in response to internal or external pressures. A better understanding of the interactions of the social and ecological systems that drive those dynamics is crucial for the development of sustainable management strategies. Dynamic models can serve as tools to explore social-ecological interactions; however, the complexity of the studied systems and the need to integrate knowledge, theories, and approaches from different disciplines pose considerable challenges for their development. We assess the potential of Ostrom’s general SES framework (SESF) to guide a systematic and transparent process of model development in light of these difficulties. We develop a stepwise...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Dynamic modeling; Model development; SES framework; Social-ecological modeling; Social-ecological processes.
Ano: 2014
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Modeling Social-Ecological Feedback Effects in the Implementation of Payments for Environmental Services in Pasture-Woodlands Ecology and Society
Huber, Robert; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL; robert.huber@wsl.ch; Briner, Simon; ETH Zurich, Agri-food and Agri-environmental Economics Group, Department of Environmental Systems Science; briners@ethz.ch; Lauber, Stefan; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL; stefan.lauber@wsl.ch; Seidl, Roman; ETH Zurich, Natural and Social Science Interface, Department of Environmental Systems Science; roman.seidl@env.ethz.ch; Widmer, Alexander; ETH Zurich, Environmental Policy and Economics, Department of Environmental Systems Science; widmeale@env.ethz.ch; Le, Quang Bao; ETH Zurich, Natural and Social Science Interface, Department of Environmental Systems Science; quang.le@env.ethz.ch; Hirschi, Christian; ETH Zurich, Environmental Policy and Economics, Department of Environmental Systems Science; christian.hirschi@env.ethz.ch.
An effective implementation of payment for environmental services (PES) must allow for complex interactions of coupled social-ecological systems. We present an integrative study of the pasture-woodland landscape of the Swiss Jura Mountains combining methods from natural and social sciences to explore feedback between vegetation dynamics on paddock level, farm-based decision making, and policy decisions on the national political level. Our modeling results show that concomitant climatic and socioeconomic changes advance the loss of open grassland in silvopastoral landscapes. This would, in the longer term, deteriorate the historical wooded pastures in the region, which fulfill important functions for biodiversity and are widely considered as landscapes that...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Dynamic modeling; Feedback; Human-environment systems; Integrated study; Payments for environmental services; Policy network analysis.
Ano: 2013
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Monitoring Current Status of and Trends in Boreal Forest Land Use in Russian Karelia Ecology and Society
Burnett, Charles; University of Salzburg; charles.burnett@sbg.ac.at; Fall, Andrew; Simon Fraser University; fall@cs.sfu.ca; Tomppo, Erkki; Finnish Forest Research Institute; Erkki.Tomppo@metla.fi; Kalliola, Risto; University of Turku; risto.kalliola@utu.fi.
Some of the last remaining near-natural boreal forest landscapes in northern Europe can be found in the Russian Karelia near its border with Finland. Currently, these forests are facing strong exploitation pressure in the form of extensive clearcuts. Demand for conservation is also high. We characterize the boreal forest landscape in the region and assess the impacts of past and potential management actions through a mapping and modeling study that synthesizes methods from landscape ecology, remote sensing, and simulation modeling. The forests of the study area were mapped using techniques for interpreting multitemporal satellite images and detecting changes. The species composition and structure of the forests were estimated using the multisource...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Karelia; Russia; Finland; Boreal forest; Conservation policy; Dynamic modeling; Fragmentation; Land use; GIS.
Ano: 2003
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Switching to Perennial Energy Crops under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility AgEcon
Song, Feng; Zhao, Jinhua; Swinton, Scott M..
We study a farmer’s decision to convert traditional crop land into growing dedicated energy crops, taking in account sunk conversion costs, uncertainties in traditional and energy crop returns, and learning. The optimal decision rules differ significantly from the expected net present value rule, which ignores learning, and from real option models that allow only one way conversions into energy crops. These models also predict drastically different patterns of land conversions into and out of energy crops over time. Using corn-soybean rotations and switchgrass as examples, we show that the model predictions are sensitive to assumptions about stochastic processes of the returns. Government policies might have unintended consequences: subsidizing conversion...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Real options; Irreversibility; Sunk costs; Land conversion; Biofuel; Cellulosic biomass; Dynamic modeling; Stochastic process; Biofuel policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q24.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56195
Registros recuperados: 5
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